The domestic steel market was weak and consolidated today. Last weekend, the National Bureau of Statistics released that the year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) for October reached 3.2%. After the year-on-year increase in September returned above the inflation warning line, the month-on-month increase in October still rose and reached a new high in eight months. During the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Such a year-on-year increase in the CPI still intensifies the current inflationary pressure in the market and weakens the market's expectation of the central bank's easing of funds. The sensitive capital market has rapidly adjusted today. The high lines of the steel futures and electronic trading, as well as the forward hot-rolled trading and the stock market, all declined in the morning session, suppressing the spot market and causing a rapid easing and correction. Prices of various types of construction steel and plates have all shown signs of weakening.
However, with the gradual decline in steel prices and the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction, the production scheduling actions of China's steel mills have also emerged. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the crude steel daily output data for October, which was 2.0994 million tons. This is the first time since February this year that the daily output data has dropped below 2.1 million tons. Coupled with the fact that the current steel inventory in the circulation market is at a new low for the year The resources held by each merchant are relatively limited. Such a level does not support a significant further decline in steel prices. On the contrary, in accordance with the current economic development cycle and the critical time period when the Third Plenary Session sets the tone for the new round of reform and development direction, and relying on the strong demand for basic raw materials due to the pace of urbanization construction, this provides sufficient impetus for the subsequent rise in steel prices and also makes the adjustment space of the steel market not too large. In addition, there is a year-end sprint plan for various markets. It was recently learned that the number of new projects started by the China Railway Corporation this year has been adjusted from the original plan of 38 to 47, and the investment scale of new projects has increased from 416 billion yuan to 471.3 billion yuan. This means that nine new railway projects will be added this year, with an additional investment of 55.3 billion yuan. The China Railway Corporation recently released data showing that in the first nine months, the fixed asset investment in the railway sector reached 369.7 billion yuan, among which the investment in railway construction was 328.7 billion yuan, an increase of 36.6 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, with a growth rate of 12.5%. Judging from the current situation, railway investment and construction may reach another peak before the end of the year. From an overall expectation perspective, although the fundamentals of the steel market still have bearish factors, the bullish ones outweigh the bearish ones. Therefore, after a brief adjustment this week, steel prices may still maintain a firm pattern. And with the gradual establishment of policy directions after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, it is not ruled out that the steel market will rise again.
According to monitoring, today, the average price of 25mm grade three rebar in key domestic cities is 3,556 yuan, remaining the same as last Friday. The average price of a 6.5mm high line in key domestic cities was 3,534 yuan, down 8 yuan from last Friday. The average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil in key domestic cities was 3,497 yuan, down 1 yuan from last Friday. The average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coil in key domestic central cities is 4,360 yuan, remaining the same as last Friday. The average price of 20mm medium slabs in key domestic cities is 3,437 yuan, down 1 yuan from last Friday.
In terms of raw materials, today, the price of 150*150 common carbon square billet in Tangshan area is 3,030 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan compared with last Friday. The price of 65-66 grade acidic dry-based iron concentrate in Tangshan area is 1,070 yuan, remaining the same as last Friday. The price of second-grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan area is 1,350 yuan, remaining the same as last Friday.
The main contract of rebar 1405 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 3,650 yuan per ton in the early trading session on the 11th. It then consolidated sideways until the midday session. After the midday session, it saw a certain rise and then fluctuated narrowly. The lowest price was 3,633 yuan per ton, the highest was 3,677 yuan per ton, and it closed at 3,668 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan per ton from the settlement price of the previous trading day (the 8th). The transaction volume was 1,523,286, with an open interest of 1,466,372 lots, a decrease of 46,848 lots.